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Accession Number PB2013-104729
Title Analysis of Recent Improvements to Vehicle Safety.
Publication Date Jun 2012
Media Count 85p
Personal Author D. Glassbrenner
Abstract This report seeks to quantify the improved safety of newer vehicles and its contribution to historically low fatality and injury rates experienced in the United States in recent years. We develop statistical models of crash avoidance and crashworthiness and apply the results of these models to estimate the likely result of replacing newer vehicles with older vehicles and vice versa, while controlling for human and environmental factors that would otherwise cloud the result. The analysis finds remarkable improvements to vehicle safety. We estimate that the likelihood of crashing in 100,000 miles of driving has decreased from 30 percent in a model year 2000 car to 25 percent in a model year 2008 one, when both vehicles are driven as new. The likelihood of escaping a crash uninjured has improved from 79 to 82 percent as a result of improvements between the 2000 and 2008 car fleets. Improvements are also found for light trucks and vans, and for the chances of surviving a crash and avoiding incapacitation. The nationwide impact of these advancements is substantial. We estimate that improvements made after the model year 2000 fleet prevented the crashes of 700,000 vehicles; prevented or mitigated the injuries of 1 million occupants; and saved 2,000 lives in the 2008 calendar year alone. Of the 9 million passenger vehicles that were in crashes, the crashes of an estimated 200,000 of them were preventable by improvements to the model year 2008 fleet, and the injuries of 300,000 of their 12 million occupants would have been prevented or mitigated, including saving 600 lives.
Keywords Crash avoidance
Traffic safety
Vehicle safety

Source Agency Highway Traffic Safety
NTIS Subject Category 85D - Transportation Safety
43G - Transportation
91B - Transportation & Traffic Planning
Corporate Author National Center for Statistics and Analysis, Washington, DC. Mathematical Analysis Div.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note N/A
NTIS Issue Number 1310
Contract Number N/A

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