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Accession Number PB2013-100592
Title Monitoring Drug Epidemics and the Markets that Sustain Them Using ADAM II: Final Technical Report.
Publication Date Aug 2012
Media Count 85p
Personal Author A. Golub E. Dunlap H. Brownstein
Abstract Effective law enforcement, drug abuse and related social policies and initiatives depend on the timely availability of information and its interpretation. This study examined trends in use of five widely abused drugs among arrestees at ten geographically diverse locations from 2000 to 2010: Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Denver, Indianapolis, Manhattan, Minneapolis, Portland OR, Sacramento, and Washington DC. The data came from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring Program reintroduced in 2007 (ADAM II) and its predecessor the ADAM program. ADAM data are particularly valuable because they include urinalysis results that provide an objective measure of recent drug use; they provide location specific estimates over time; and, they include sample weights that yield unbiased estimates for each location. Arrestees are often at the forefront of drug use trends. Moreover, this population is of central concern to law enforcement and related agencies. The ADAM data were analyzed according to a drug epidemics framework, which has been previously employed to understand the decline of the crack epidemic, the growth of marijuana use in the 1990s, and the persistence of heroin use. Similar to other diffusion of innovation processes, drug epidemics tend to follow a natural course passing through four distinct phases: incubation, expansion, plateau, and decline. The study also searched for changes in drug markets over the course of a drug epidemic. A variety of exploratory analyses strongly suggest that there is no simple relationship between the nature of individuals drug market purchases and the broader course of drug epidemics. As of 2010, the Marijuana Epidemic was in its plateau phase across the country. In contrast, by 2010 the Crack Epidemic had been in decline for some time at most locations. The timing of the decline phase varied substantially across locations. The decline started as early as 1990 in Manhattan and Washington DC and as late as 2003 in Indianapolis. As of 2010, the Crack Epidemic was still in the plateau phase in Sacramento. Powder cocaine use was only substantial at 5 of the 10 ADAM II locations. The Powder Cocaine Epidemic entered a decline early in the 2000s at two eastern locations (Charlotte and Manhattan) and closer to 2010 at two western locations (Denver and Portland OR). In Atlanta, the recent Powder Cocaine Epidemic was either still in plateau or had just entered the decline phase. Heroin use was limited to four locations and was in decline at three of the four (Chicago, Manhattan and Washington DC). Heroin use appears to be endemic to Portland OR; use is not widespread but appears to be embedded within a small population that continues to attract new young users. Methamphetamine use was substantial at two West Coast locations. Of note, the data strongly indicate that the Methamphetamine Epidemics in Portland OR and Sacramento entered the decline phase during the 2000s. The primary limitation to this analysis is that it focused exclusively on male arrestees from the 10 urban locations included in the ADAM II Program. The trends identified do not necessarily parallel the trends in the general population. Additionally, there may be variations in drug use across gender not detectable with ADAM data. The ADAM II locations provide geographic diversity but the program does not include any rural locations. This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice.
Keywords Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring(ADAM)
Drug abuse
Drug markets
Drug use
Geographic areas
Law enforcement
Rural areas
Social psychology
Urban areas

Source Agency Office of Justice Programs.
NTIS Subject Category 92C - Social Concerns
91C - Fire Services, Law Enforcement, & Criminal Justice
43 - Problem Solving Information for State & Local Governments
Corporate Author National Development and Research Institutes, Inc., New York.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note Final rept.
NTIS Issue Number 1305
Contract Number 2010-IJ-CX-0011

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