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Accession Number PB2013-100410
Title Determinants of Chicago Neighborhood Homicide Trends, 1980-2000.
Publication Date Aug 2012
Media Count 81p
Personal Author B. J. Stults
Abstract One of the most important social changes in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s was the dramatic increase and subsequent decrease in crime, and particularly violent crime, in large cities. For example, the homicide rate in Chicago nearly tripled between 1965 and 1992, after which point it declined by more than 50% through 2005. Surely this is a remarkable pattern of change, but is this trend representative of all areas in the city. The general purpose of the proposed project is to examine homicide trends in Chicago neighborhoods from 1980-2000 using three data sources available from ICPSR and the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD). Drawing on the social disorganization and concentrated disadvantage literature, this study will use growth-curve modeling and semi-parametric group-based trajectory modeling to: (1) assess neighborhood variation in homicide trends; (2) identify the particular types of homicide trajectory that Chicago neighborhoods follow; (3) assess whether structural characteristics of neighborhoods influence homicide trends and trajectories; and (4) determine the extent to which the influence of structural characteristics is mediated by neighborhood levels of collective efficacy. This project extends prior research by not only describing the homicide trends and trajectories of Chicago neighborhoods, but also identifying the neighborhood characteristics that directly and indirectly influence those trends. Results show that considerable variation exists in homicide trends across Chicago neighborhoods. In the group-based trajectory analysis, homicide trajectories are consistently associated with initial levels of concentrated disadvantage as well as change over time. Change in family disruption is also predictive of trajectory group assignment, but only among neighborhoods with very high initial levels of This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. homicide. In the growth curve analysis, concentrated disadvantage is associated with initial levels of homicide, but not change over time. In contrast, social disorganization and immigrant concentration emerge as significant predictors of variability in homicide trends. Additional models incorporating data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) show that neighborhood ties and perceived social disorder mediate a substantial portion of the effects of concentrated disadvantage and social disorganization on homicide rates.
Keywords Characteristics
Chicago neighborhoods

Source Agency Department of Justice General
NTIS Subject Category 92D - Education, Law, & Humanities
91C - Fire Services, Law Enforcement, & Criminal Justice
70F - Public Administration & Government
Corporate Author National Inst. of Justice, Washington, DC.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note N/A
NTIS Issue Number 1302
Contract Number 2008-IJ-CX-0019

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