Accession Number PB2012-114848
Title Quarterly Econometric Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the U.S. Dairy Industry.
Publication Date Jan 2012
Media Count 38p
Personal Author R. Mosheim
Abstract This research evaluates the econometric approaches employed by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS) to contribute to the dairy sector forecasts published in the monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. To generate the estimates, a quarterly model for the U.S. dairy industry is specified using data for fourth-quarter 1998 (Q4/1998) to first-quarter 2009 (Q1/2009), and it is estimated and validated employing data for Q2/2009 to Q1/2010. Different forecasts are generated using a variety of single equation and system methods, and then evaluated in terms of forecasting precision or predicting turning points in the data. Different approaches, however, more effectively forecast different variables. Vector autoregression with exogenous variables outperforms structural regression models when forecasting prices, but single and system estimations of structural models are superior to time series models when forecasting some items on farm supply and commodity balance sheets.
Keywords Agricultural economics
Commodities
Dairy industry
Economic forecasting
Economic models
Estimates
Prices
Regression analysis
Supply and demand
Vector autoregression


 
Source Agency Economic Research Service
NTIS Subject Category 98B - Agricultural Economics
96A - Domestic Commerce, Marketing, & Economics
Corporate Author Economic Research Service, Washington, DC.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note N/A
NTIS Issue Number 1226
Contract Number N/A

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