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Accession Number
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PB2012-114755
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Title
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Implications of an Early Corn Crop Harvest for Feed and Residual Use Estimates.
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Publication Date
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Jul 2012
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Media Count
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21p
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Personal Author
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J. D. Norton P. C. Westcott
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Abstract
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U.S. corn plantings this spring were ahead of a typical pace, suggesting that prospects may be good for an early harvest of the 2012 corn crop. An early harvestbefore the August 31 end of the previous marketing yearcreates an overlap of supply-and-use data between the old and new marketing years that can alter the patterns of corn use and ending stocks, with implications for official USDA projections and estimates. Early harvest and usage of new-crop corn can raise non-feed-and-residual use categories and/or ending stocks in the old marketing year. Feed and residual use of corn is the accounting category used to balance corn supply and demand, derived as total supply minus all other (non-feed-and-residual) uses minus ending stocks. Thus, any increases in non-feed-and-residual uses or ending stocks in the old marketing year related to an early harvest of the next years corn crop would lower the residual derivation of corn feed and residual use for the old marketing year. To analyze this effect, an econometric and statistical model for marketing-year feed and residual use for total feed grains is developed. The model augments typical economic explanatory factors for feed demand with statistical factors related to the residual nature of this balance sheet component. The effect of an early harvest of the corn crop is represented in the model by the percent of the corn crop rated mature on August 31, a statistic reported by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Results suggest that for each 10-percentage-point increase in the August 31 new-corn-crop maturity rating, estimated old-crop feed and residual use of corn falls by almost 120 million bushels.
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Keywords
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Agricultural crops
Agricultural economics
Consumption
Corn
Economic factors
Economic forecasting
Estimates
Ethanol
Feeding stuff
Grains (Food)
Marketing
Prices
Production
Statistical data
Supply and demand
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Source Agency
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Economic Research Service
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NTIS Subject Category
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98B - Agricultural Economics
96A - Domestic Commerce, Marketing, & Economics
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Corporate Author
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Economic Research Service, Washington, DC.
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Document Type
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Technical report
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Title Note
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N/A
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NTIS Issue Number
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1226
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Contract Number
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N/A
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