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Accession Number ADA584332
Title Strategic Munitions Planning in Non-Conventional Asymmetric Operations.
Publication Date Apr 2010
Media Count 16p
Personal Author P. Guy
Abstract Most NATO nations are facing reduced defence budgets, while at the same time participating in multiple demanding operations around the world. Combined with the global economic situation, munitions procurement is under close scrutiny from finance ministers. This paper discusses approaches to strategic munitions procurement in the face of uncertain current and future operations, extended operation duration, procurement/manufacture lead times of months or even years, collateral damage considerations, use of strategic weapons in non-strategic engagements and disposal of obsolete munitions stockpiles. Current and recent operations, while obviously a good source of data if available, may not reflect future operations or doctrine. As such, the usefulness of historical data must be treated with care. Methodologies considered by this paper include the Target-Oriented Methodology (TOM), Level- of-Effort Methodology (LoE), Monte-Carlo Simulation, Marginal Analysis and military judgement. While each approach has its advantages and disadvantages, results need to be robust, objective, transparent and repeatable in order to justify the expense of potentially millions of dollars per munition. Furthermore, it was observed that while several types of weapon system might be able to perform a given mission, there is a trade-off between the cost of the munition and the risk of attrition to the platform utilising it. This paper demonstrates that, while hard data is always desirable, the uncertain nature of the future makes the use of military judgement inescapable. Detailed scenario development is the key to strategic planning, resulting in the requirement for a mix of munitions guided by the types and quantities of tasks that will need to be executed. For air-launched weapons, the requirement for non-precision munitions is virtually nil, while minimising of collateral damage and scenario duration are key drivers.
Keywords Deployment
Lead times
Level-of-effort methodology
Logistics planning
Marginal analysis
Military judgement
Military procurement
Military requirements
Monte-carlo simulation
Probability analysis
Strategic munitions planning
Strategic weapons
Target interdependence
Tom(Target-oriented methodology)
Weapon systems

Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 72E - Operations Research
74E - Logistics, Military Facilities, & Supplies
96 - Business & Economics
Corporate Author NATO Consultation, Command and Control Agency, The Hague (Netherlands).
Document Type Technical report
Title Note Conference paper.
NTIS Issue Number 1402
Contract Number N/A

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