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Accession Number ADA584076
Title Mapping Populations: An Objective Measurement of Revolutionary Dynamics.
Publication Date Jun 2013
Media Count 177p
Personal Author D. Gaugush G. Merkl N. Thompson
Abstract This work proposes a mathematical paradigm for modeling the rise and fall of ideologically-based coalitions during intrastate conflicts. It proposes that misalignment of preferences within society's constituencies drives instability, which can lead to revolution. To determine society's preference on an issue, the model considers two components: ideology and fervor. It shows that ideology tends to remain static while fervor changes rapidly. With society's preferences mapped according to constituents' ideology and fervor, the model then considers how coalitions exercise control in their quest for dominance. The model builds upon the foundation of expert thought on intrastate conflict. It uses experts' generally qualitative assessments and employs measurable data and linear algebra to give a more formal depiction of the dynamics at play. Mapping populations in this manner may give insight into optimal strategies for eliciting stability or instability in a state. Using a hypothetical country (Doulah) in a developing revolution, the work implements the map to depict a government's attempts to stabilize a devolving intrastate system. It shows how rival coalitions can rapidly rise from irrelevance to preeminence by manipulating fervor. The work concludes by depicting the impact of various third-party strategies for intervening in intrastate conflicts.
Keywords Attitudes(Psychology)
Civil war
Coalition modeling
Ideologically-based coalitions
Intrastate conflict
Mathematical models
Political issues
Political parties
Political revolution
Population mapping
Preference matrix
Public opinion
Revolutionary dynamics
Rival coalitions

Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 92 - Behavior & Society
92C - Social Concerns
92B - Psychology
57T - Psychiatry
74G - Military Operations, Strategy, & Tactics
Corporate Author Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. Defense Analysis Dept.
Document Type Thesis
Title Note Master's thesis.
NTIS Issue Number 1402
Contract Number N/A

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