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Accession Number ADA584037
Title Time Sensitive Course of Action Development and Evaluation.
Publication Date Oct 2010
Media Count 18p
Personal Author A. H. Levis
Abstract The development of courses of action that integrate military with diplomatic, economic, and information operations (DIME) poses particular modeling challenges because the different instruments of national, multi- national, or international power operate often on different time scales. Timed Influence Net modeling is a Bayesian net variant that relates causes and effects and enables (a) the determination of alternative courses of action using alternative optimization algorithms and (b) the derivation of probability profiles which show graphically the changes over time of the probability of desired or undesired effects occurring. This provides useful information in selecting a course of action and assessing its risk. A university developed software application called Pythia has been used in the last few years to address issues in the planning of Information Operations, in analyzing the potential impact of counter-terrorism operations, and in coordinating humanitarian assistance. Multiple algorithms are embedded in Pythia to accommodate different causal assumptions. An example based on the development of information operations in conjunction with tactical operations in a province/sector where insurgents are active and destroying some of the infrastructure has been used as the basis for developing and analyzing alternative courses of action. The importance of the attitudes of the non- combatant local population on the probability of achieving the desired effects in a timely manner is illustrated. Sensitivity analyses show the impact of the relative timing of the various DIME related operations.
Keywords Bayesian networks
Counterinsurgency
Counterterrorism
Dime(Diplomatic and economic and information operations)
Military planning
Military tactics
Optimization
Probability
Pythia
Software tools

 
Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 72F - Statistical Analysis
74G - Military Operations, Strategy, & Tactics
62B - Computer Software
Corporate Author George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA. Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note Conference paper.
NTIS Issue Number 1402
Contract Number N00014-08-1-0319 FA9550-05-1-0388

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