Documents in the NTIS Technical Reports collection are the results of federally funded research. They are directly submitted to or collected by NTIS from Federal agencies for permanent accessibility to industry, academia and the public.  Before purchasing from NTIS, you may want to check for free access from (1) the issuing organization's website; (2) the U.S. Government Printing Office's Federal Digital System website; (3) the federal government Internet portal; or (4) a web search conducted using a commercial search engine such as
Accession Number ADA575122
Title Predictive Non-Equilibrium Social Science.
Publication Date Dec 2012
Media Count 13p
Personal Author C. Johnson K. Glass R. Colbaugh
Abstract Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of NESS, occupying a central role in its scientific inquiry and representing a key activity of practitioners in domains such as economics, public policy, and national security. We begin by clarifying the distinction between models which are useful for prediction and the much more common explanatory models studied in the social sciences. We then investigate a challenging real-world predictive analysis case study, and find evidence that the poor performance of standard prediction methods does not indicate an absence of human predictability but instead reflects (1) incorrect assumptions concerning the predictive utility of explanatory models, (2) misunderstanding regarding which features of social dynamics actually possess predictive power, and (3) practical difficulties exploiting predictive representations.
Keywords Adversarial interactions
Explanatory analysis
National security
Ness(Non equilibrium social science)
Network fissions
Political science
Social sciences

Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 96 - Business & Economics
92 - Behavior & Society
Corporate Author Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note Conference paper.
NTIS Issue Number 1319
Contract Number N/A

Science and Technology Highlights

See a sampling of the latest scientific, technical and engineering information from NTIS in the NTIS Technical Reports Newsletter

Acrobat Reader Mobile    Acrobat Reader