Accession Number ADA575122
Title Predictive Non-Equilibrium Social Science.
Publication Date Dec 2012
Media Count 13p
Personal Author C. Johnson K. Glass R. Colbaugh
Abstract Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of NESS, occupying a central role in its scientific inquiry and representing a key activity of practitioners in domains such as economics, public policy, and national security. We begin by clarifying the distinction between models which are useful for prediction and the much more common explanatory models studied in the social sciences. We then investigate a challenging real-world predictive analysis case study, and find evidence that the poor performance of standard prediction methods does not indicate an absence of human predictability but instead reflects (1) incorrect assumptions concerning the predictive utility of explanatory models, (2) misunderstanding regarding which features of social dynamics actually possess predictive power, and (3) practical difficulties exploiting predictive representations.
Keywords Adversarial interactions
Algorithms
Economics
Explanatory analysis
Health
National security
Ness(Non equilibrium social science)
Network fissions
Policies
Political science
Predictions
Social sciences


 
Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 96 - Business & Economics
92 - Behavior & Society
Corporate Author Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note Conference paper.
NTIS Issue Number 1319
Contract Number N/A

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