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Accession Number ADA574556
Title Risk: Risk and Decision Making in Military Combat and Training Environments.
Publication Date Dec 2012
Media Count 83p
Personal Author J. R. Lojka M. R. Myer
Abstract All decisions involve risk, yet the subject is poorly understood and difficult to define. Understanding risk is vital for military leaders who prepare their forces to operate in risky environments against adversaries who seek to impose risk upon their enemies. Furthermore, the decisions of military leaders affect the subordinates under their command and ultimately the will of the nation that has sent them abroad. It is paramount, therefore, that we use a decision process that will reveal how emotions can affect our judgment. Frequently, cultural forces in the military can result in ill-informed and emotionally biased decisions that are an irresponsible execution of duty. We address this problem by defining the objective components of risk using mathematical concepts and then characterizing the nature of risk in different military environments using these concepts. Our approach uses economic principles, game theory, and decision theory to illustrate how calculations of risk should influence decision making. Objectively defining risk will aid in revealing the subjective components of risk; the mathematical principles explain how decisions are effectively made and how to make decisions effectively. Risk in training and risk in combat pose two very different problems. To be fully understood, these environments must be viewed together. This research aims to create a more informed decision making process and a more sophisticated decision maker.
Keywords Battlefields
Combat risk
Decision making
Decision theory
Decision trees
Expected value
Game theory
Game trees
Military commanders
Military training
Protected decisions
Risk avoidance
Training risk
Unprotected decisions
Utility theory

Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 70B - Management Practice
92B - Psychology
57T - Psychiatry
72E - Operations Research
74 - Military Sciences
74G - Military Operations, Strategy, & Tactics
Corporate Author Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. Defense Analysis Dept.
Document Type Thesis
Title Note Master's thesis.
NTIS Issue Number 1318
Contract Number N/A

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