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Accession Number ADA573937
Title Validating a Social Model Wargame: An Analysis of the Green Country Model.
Publication Date Dec 2012
Media Count 115p
Personal Author T. M. Kinyon
Abstract The Green Country Model (GCM), developed at the Johns Hopkins University-Applied Physics Lab (JHU-APL), was contrived to determine if the social aspects of a society could be incorporated into a war game to simulate realistic outcomes of an event or actions of a player whose opponents range from friendly to hostile. The game is not meant to offer predictions for a course of action or the impact of a course of action on the future, but to provide players, particularly those players who are leaders, a forum in which to discuss strategy, tactics, and possible courses of action, thus improving their knowledge base and ability to 'think outside the box.' The GCM is a vast model originally built on 19 intricately linked and embedded Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. With the current model, it takes about a day for the players and moderators to get through all the phases of the game. The game was built as a two-player (or two-group) board game, with a simple Graphical User Interface (GUI) that projects maps and spreadsheet displays onto a screen so that players can get a bigger picture of the game set up. Utilizing the concepts, input parameters, and underlying algorithms established by JHU-APL, we built a simulation model to validate the GCM. This model can run one action in thousandths of a second. In this thesis, the random operations of the model (of which there are dozens) are all specified by random numbers generated from user- selected distributions. In this way, we allow the model to be vastly more general, and useful for much more than simple two-group play. This should allow players, developers, analysts, and policy makers the ability to assess and quantify the possible effects of choices (and the probability distributions of outcomes associated with those choices) in a way that has not been possible before this analysis.
Keywords Action outcomes
Computerized simulation
Critical parameters
Critical settings
Decision making
Dime(Diplomacy intelligence military economic)
Game mechanics
Game set up
Green country model
Irregular warfare
Java programming language
Pmesii(Political military economic social information infras
Social model war games
Spreadsheet software
Unconventional warfare
War games

Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 92C - Social Concerns
62B - Computer Software
74G - Military Operations, Strategy, & Tactics
Corporate Author Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. Dept. of Operations Research.
Document Type Thesis
Title Note Master's thesis.
NTIS Issue Number 1318
Contract Number N/A

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