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Accession Number ADA562415
Title Forecasting Spacecraft Telemetry Using Modified Physical Predictions.
Publication Date Oct 2010
Media Count 11p
Personal Author I. Kulikov R. Mackey
Abstract Among systems that provide sensor data of their performance, one approach to prognostic estimation is forecasting, i.e. prediction of measurable parameters and comparison of predicted values against established operational limits. Forecasting can be attempted statistically, or can be based on rigorous physical simulation. However, combining these approaches is difficult where system mode behavior or timing of system activities is uncertain, limiting the accuracy or applicability of a forecast. In this paper we describe a method to modify simulation outputs to better match current telemetry. We begin with a familiar autoregressive approach to model residuals between predicted spacecraft performance, provided by physics-based modeling tools, and up-to- date spacecraft telemetry. This result is then improved by transforming the simulation result to better fit recent data, and the transformation is applied to generate more accurate future predictions. The method is suitable for real- time signal prediction. We will motivate this approach and characterize its performance using example telemetry from the NASA Mars Exploration Rover spacecraft.*.
Keywords Accuracy
Comparison
Detectors
Estimates
Forecasting
Limitations
Output
Paper
Physical properties
Predictions
Real time
Residuals
Signals
Simulation
Spacecraft
Symposia
Telemeter systems
Transformations


 
Source Agency Non Paid ADAS
NTIS Subject Category 45C - Common Carrier & Satellite
Corporate Author Jet Propulsion Lab., Pasadena, CA.
Document Type Technical report
Title Note Conference paper.
NTIS Issue Number 1225
Contract Number N/A

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