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Accession Number
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ADA560083
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Title
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When do Armed Revolts Succeed: Lessons from Lanchester Theory.
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Publication Date
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Oct 2011
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Media Count
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25p
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Personal Author
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A. Gutfraind M. Kress M. P. Atkinson
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Abstract
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Major revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a new model of such revolts that describes their evolution by building on the classic Lanchester theory of combat. The model accounts for the split in the population between those loyal to the regime and those favoring the rebels. We show that, contrary to classical Lanchesterian insights regarding traditional force-on-force engagements, the outcome of a revolt is independent of the initial force sizes; it only depends on the fraction of the population supporting each side and their combat effectiveness. The model's predictions are consistent with the situations currently observed in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria (September 2011) and it points to how those situations might evolve.
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Keywords
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Armed revolts
Behavioral sciences
Conflict
Conflict analysis
Defence studies
Dynamics
Insurgency
Lanchester theory
Military doctrine
Military theory
Population
System dynamics
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Source Agency
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Non Paid ADAS
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NTIS Subject Category
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92C - Social Concerns
57T - Psychiatry
92B - Psychology
72E - Operations Research
74G - Military Operations, Strategy, & Tactics
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Corporate Author
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Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. Dept. of Operations Research.
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Document Type
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Journal article
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Title Note
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Journal article.
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NTIS Issue Number
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1221
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Contract Number
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N/A
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